Non-U.S. Markets Are Gaining on the U.S.—Are Your Clients Positioned to Benefit?
July 13, 2020
If there was ever a time to boost your clients’ exposure to non-U.S. markets, it may be now. That’s according to Nick Niziolek, Co-CIO, Head of International and Global Strategies, Senior Co-Portfolio Manager.
“The global recovery may be uneven, with the advantage going to Asian and European markets,” says Niziolek.
American investment portfolios have long favored American companies and, given the strength of U.S. equities, such “complacency” has had little consequence.
But here’s how Niziolek breaks down the case for non-U.S investing at this point halfway through a memorable year.
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U.S. political uncertainty is weighing on U.S. returns. Yes, the S&P 500 returned 20.5% in the second quarter and almost 2% in June alone. Still, Niziolek notes that European, emerging market, and Asian benchmarks gained significantly more in June in what he believes could be the start of a multi-year cycle.
- A global recovery could favor the cyclically tilted markets of EM, Europe and Asia.
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Relative valuations—the crisis began with cheaper valuations overseas, and that continues to be the case.
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The weak U.S. dollar is a tailwind to these markets. Watch for a debate to take shape about this, Niziolek says. “We believed we were entering a weak-dollar regime post-U.S./China trade truce,” he says. “This was delayed due to COVID-19, but the increased U.S. monetary support, synchronized global recovery, and relative FX valuations should all provide tailwinds for further US$ weakness.”
Demand for the dollar has been flat to falling, and supply has been outpacing other currencies.
Calamos Global/International Funds Outperformance YTD
Niziolek and team head into the second half of 2020 confident that they’re ready to navigate the uncertainty ahead. Each of the four Global/International funds outperformed in the three very distinct phases of the first half—the start of the year to its peak on February 20, the peak to the trough on March 23, the trough to the end of the second quarter, including the decisive June.
The outperformance against both benchmark and their Morningstar category peers proved the funds’ ability to adapt even as sector leadership changed and industries driving the recovery evolved, Niziolek believes. (Also see this discussion of how the team has identified secular themes to surface companies that are better positioned and have a greater capacity to grow in both favorable and unfavorable economic climates.)
Investment professionals, is now the time to redeploy clients’ cash into non-U.S. risk assets? To discuss, reach out to your Calamos Investment Consultant at 888-571-2567 or caminfo@calamos.com.
Click here to view CNWIX’s standardized performance.
Click here to view CIGEX's standardized performance.
Click here to view CGCIX's standardized performance.
Click here to view CIGIX's standardized performance.
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The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, and portfolio selection risk. As a result of political or economic instability in foreign countries, there can be special risks associated with investing in foreign securities, including fluctuations in currency exchange rates, increased price volatility and difficulty obtaining information. In addition, emerging markets may present additional risk due to potential for greater economic and political instability in less developed countries.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Equity Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, value stock risk, foreign securities risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk. As a result of political or economic instability in foreign countries, there can be special risks associated with investing in foreign securities, including fluctuations in currency exchange rates, increased price volatility and difficulty obtaining information. In addition, emerging markets may present additional risk due to potential for greater economic and political instability in less developed countries.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Growth and Income Fund include: convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, synthetic convertible instruments risk consisting of fluctuations inconsistent with a convertible security and the risk of components expiring worthless, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, equity securities risk, growth stock risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, high yield risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, portfolio selection risk, and liquidity risk. As a result of political or economic instability in foreign countries, there can be special risks associated with investing in foreign securities, including fluctuations in currency exchange rates, increased price volatility and difficulty obtaining information. In addition, emerging markets may present additional risk due to potential for greater economic and political instability in less developed countries.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos International Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk. As a result of political or economic instability in foreign countries, there can be special risks associated with investing in foreign securities, including fluctuations in currency exchange rates, increased price volatility and difficulty obtaining information. In addition, emerging markets may present additional risk due to potential for greater economic and political instability in less developed countries.
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Archived material may contain dated performance, risk and other information. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted in the archived material. For the most recent month-end fund performance information visit www.calamos.com. Archived material may contain dated opinions and estimates based on our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions at the time of publishing. We believed the information provided here was reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
Performance data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. The principal value and return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance reflected at NAV does not include the Fund’s maximum front-end sales load. Had it been included, the Fund’s return would have been lower.
Archived material may contain dated performance, risk and other information. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted in the archived material. For the most recent month-end fund performance information visit www.calamos.com. Archived material may contain dated opinions and estimates based on our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions at the time of publishing. We believed the information provided here was reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
Performance data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. The principal value and return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance reflected at NAV does not include the Fund’s maximum front-end sales load. Had it been included, the Fund’s return would have been lower.
Archived on July 13, 2021