The excess returns generated by US benchmarks over the last two years have been driven by substantially positive macroeconomic surprises, especially for growth but also for inflation. Despite current optimism, extending the surprises through 2025 will be challenging.
Read PostDonald Trump’s re-election reflects an important shift in forces in the West, according to Co-CIO Michael Grant. As this shift continues, investors need to consider a very different kind of financial landscape in the coming years.
Read PostThe perception of the virtual invincibility of US equities has taken hold across large parts of the investment community. However, here’s the conundrum: an “Invincibility Syndrome” signals a crescendo and historically emerges when markets are in the process of establishing a major summit. If investors are crossing over a peak, what insight can prepare them for what lies beyond?
Read PostInvestment narratives have changed rapidly on the heels of the Fed’s rate cut and China’s stimulus. But what are markets getting wrong? Michael Grant explains what to look for and how he’s positioning CPLIX to navigate the crosscurrents.
Read PostEmployment markets recovered. Corporate profit margins are peaking but stable. Earnings can advance 5% or so in a not-so-terrible world of 5% nominal GDP. We are benignly moving beyond the unusual contours of the post-pandemic years, leaving open for debate, “What is normal?”
Read PostUS households and businesses are in robust health with balance sheets in their best shape in decades. Calamos Phineus Long/Short Fund (CPLIX) has been highly tactical around key positioning narratives, leaning into several AI themes while maintaining a modest level of net equity exposure.
Read Post2024 will be different from 2023 because the balance between inflation, disinflation and the rising possibility of deflation is more nuanced. We suspect the revived bullish mood climaxes in coming weeks, giving way to a (possibly hard) consolidation into spring.
Read PostLow interest rates and central bank distortions have been the hallmark of the post-2008 era. The past quarter was notable for the sense that this landscape is giving way to something quite different, with real interest rates attaining their highest levels in two decades. In his latest commentary, Michael Grant sorts out the implications of this “new normal.”
Read PostIn his Q3 Investment Team Outlook, Michael Grant discusses the “harder” challenges confronting investors in the latter part of 2023, which underscore the portfolio’s emphasis on a mix of select quality GARP opportunities and cyclicals that appear too cheap in the absence of a near-term recession.
Read PostThere is a further mild upside for equities, but equities are not in a new bull market, according to Michael Grant, Senior Co-Portfolio Manager of Calamos Phineus Long/Short Fund. Beyond summer, rising volatility seems inevitable as investors await the resolutions of key debates, including the one over Fed policy.
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