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Tailwinds Ahead: Cyclical Drivers and Secular Innovation in 2026
January 2, 2026
Nick Niziolek, CFA, Dennis Cogan, CFA, Paul Ryndak, CFA, and Kyle Ruge, CFA
Summary Points:
- In 2025, investors with globally diversified portfolios were well positioned to capture gains around the world, as a great global rebalancing gained traction.
- We head into 2026 with an optimistic outlook; many of the cyclical and secular themes that drove global equity market gains in 2025 will continue to provide our team with attractive and broadening opportunities in 2026.
- A weak dollar environment, diverging monetary and economic outlooks, and regional fiscal policies support positioning portfolios with a cyclical tilt.
- Secular growth themes, including the AI infrastructure buildout, also provide powerful tailwinds.
- Although we see continued upside in the US market and continue to identify many US companies with exciting growth trajectories, we believe that international markets are poised to outperform again in 2026.
Throughout 2025, we focused on a key theme—a great global rebalancing supported by stimulative fiscal policies, particularly in Europe, and a weak dollar environment. Our outlook reflected our view that America First policies, including tariffs, would not be impediments to international markets but could instead be catalysts, providing opportunities across sectors. Indeed, this proved to be the case. While US equities posted strong gains in absolute terms, international equities outperformed, with strength across emerging and developed markets. Growth and value styles both generated strong returns, reflecting tailwinds from both cyclical trends and secular growth themes.
2025 Brought a Breadth of Global Opportunity, with Both Growth and Value Delivering Strong Results
Total Returns %
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Bloomberg.
Key Themes Reflected in Current Positioning
Cyclical themes:
- Global central bank monetary policies
- Regional government fiscal policies /election cycles /reform initiatives
Secular themes:
- Artificial intelligence and automation (productivity gains, autonomous machines/vehicles)
- Globalization disrupted (rising nationalism and trade/geopolitical tensions)
- Green energy innovation and infrastructure investment (renewables, EV and battery technology, commodities)
From a cyclical perspective, we anticipate a weak-dollar environment to persist, providing tailwinds for international risk assets and allowing countries to implement monetary and fiscal stimulus where needed.
We anticipate a mild acceleration in global economic activity in 2026. The global fiscal and monetary stimulus implemented in 2024 and 2025 continues to work its way through the economy, and consumer and business confidence should improve alongside growing clarity around global trade.
Upside surprises to our outlook include a resolution to the war in Ukraine, which would unleash a massive rebuilding program, or signs of a fiscal union in Europe that would drive more significant infrastructure investments. Either of these would give us cause to significantly increase cyclical exposure beyond our current positive tilt.
From a secular perspective, we anticipate many of the winning themes of 2025 to persist in 2026.
Defense spending. Even if current geopolitical conflicts moderate, we expect a three- to five-year cycle of munition restocking, defense buildup, and technological investments as countries in Europe and Asia seek to remedy underinvestments in defense. We anticipate many stocks exposed to this defense theme will continue to perform well and maintain a healthy overweight in our funds.
AI infrastructure buildout. Demand for chips, equipment, components, and data centers will continue to create opportunities for companies in the technology and industrial sectors. As we progress through 2026, we anticipate new winners to emerge as more successful use cases are identified.
Humanoid robots. We believe 2026 may be the year when humanoid robot supply chains begin to re-rate as orders increase and manufacturing ramps up to support demand. While there are many niche technology companies that should benefit from this increased demand, we also see potential re-ratings of auto manufacturers and auto suppliers. Many companies in these industries have been out of favor for most of the post-Covid recovery period but could see better prospects ahead as they retool their manufacturing lines to support this demand unleashed by AI advances.
Calamos Global and International Funds
Our global and international funds share the same experienced team and time-tested process; their different risk/reward profiles and investment universes support diverse asset allocation goals.
| Fund | Opportunity set | Our focus |
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| Calamos Global Opportunities Fund (CGCIX) |
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| Calamos Global Equity Fund (CIGEX) |
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| Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund (CNWIX) |
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| Calamos International Growth Fund (CIGIX) |
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| Calamos International Small Cap Growth Fund (CSGIX) |
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Before investing, carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please see the prospectus and summary prospectus containing this and other information which can be obtained by calling 1-866-363-9219. Read it carefully before investing.
*Indexes are unmanaged, do not include fees or expenses and are not available for direct investment. The MSCI World ex USA Index measures large and mid-cap developed market equities, excluding the US. TheMSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI World ex USA Growth Index and the MSCI EM Growth Index include securities from these universes with growth characteristics; the MSCI World ex USA Value and MSCI EM Value Index include securities from these universes with value characteristics. The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japanese market. The MSCI Europe Index measures the performance of large and mid-cap equities in developed markets in Europe. The FTSE Core Commodity Index tracks a broad basket of commodity futures. The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of large-cap US equities. The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of 3,000 publicly held US companies based on total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market. The Russell 3000 Growth Index is representative of those Russell 3000 Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000 Value Index is representative of those Russell 3000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values Oil is represented by Brent Crude Oil. The US Dollar Index measures the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, including Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden. Euro, Japanese yen, and Pound Sterling measure exchange rates of those currencies versus the US dollar. Gold and Copper are represented by generic futures contracts.
Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations.
Important Risk Information. An investment in the Fund(s) is subject to risks, and you could lose money on your investment in the Fund(s). There can be no assurance that the Fund(s) will achieve its investment objective. Your investment in the Fund(s) is not a deposit in a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. The risks associated with an investment in the Fund(s) can increase during times of significant market volatility. The Fund(s) also has specific principal risks, which are described below. More detailed information regarding these risks can be found in the Fund’s prospectus.
Foreign security risk: As a result of political or economic instability in foreign countries, there can be special risks associated with investing in foreign securities, including fluctuations in currency exchange rates, increased price volatility and difficulty obtaining information. In addition, emerging markets may present additional risk due to potential for greater economic and political instability in less developed countries.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos International Small Cap Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk. The Fund invests in small capitalization companies, which are often more volatile and less liquid than investments in larger companies.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Opportunities Fund include: convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, synthetic convertible instruments risk consisting of fluctuations inconsistent with a convertible security and the risk of components expiring worthless, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, equity securities risk, growth stock risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, high yield risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, portfolio selection risk, and liquidity risk.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund include equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, and portfolio selection risk.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Equity Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, value stock risk, foreign securities risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos International Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk.
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