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Global Markets: Same Engine, New Leaders
October 1, 2026
Nick Niziolek, CFA, Dennis Cogan, CFA, Paul Ryndak, CFA, and Kyle Ruge, CFA
Last quarter, we wrote that fundamentals had the floor: markets were rewarding earnings growth, thematic tailwinds were strong, and the potential for rapid shifts in macro conditions called for flexibility and balance. The third quarter put that view to the test, but our outlook remains positive. We continue to believe the AI buildout is one of the most powerful growth engines in the global economy and that it remains in its early stages. At the same time, the opportunity set within AI is evolving quickly, macro crosswinds have intensified, and the case for balance is stronger than it was three months ago.
After a strong first half of the year, AI leadership rotated during the quarter. Many semiconductor, hardware, and power-related stocks that had led the rally pulled back, while the largest AI spenders and software companies took the lead. Broader global equity markets had modestly positive returns. We view this as a digestion of an exceptionally strong run, not a turn in the fundamentals behind it. During the quarter, several of the largest cloud providers ramped up their spending plans again, with some signaling that capacity constraints could persist into 2027. Still, even earnings-driven markets can move faster than earnings in the short run, and corrections tend to land hardest on those equities that performed the best leading into the correction.
Our confidence that we are in the earlier stages of this multiyear buildout only increased during the quarter. Demand is broadening beyond the largest US platforms to AI labs, specialized cloud providers, governments investing in sovereign capacity, and enterprises moving from pilots to production. Spending is gradually shifting from training models to running them at scale, which should require more compute, memory, networking, and power over time. Physical constraints in power generation, grid connections, advanced packaging, and memory capacity may slow the buildout, but they will likely take years to resolve, which extends the runway and creates new opportunities along the way.
How we are positioned within this theme will keep evolving. Early leadership went to the most direct suppliers of computing power, but as the buildout matured, bottlenecks migrated to memory, components, packaging, and power, with market leadership following suit. Over time, we expect the opportunity to shift toward companies that use AI to grow revenue and margins, as the market becomes more discerning about the returns on this spending. We have begun rotating some of our exposure toward companies showing a positive inflection from AI-related investments, and we expect to continue rotating within and across themes as the opportunity set evolves. Near term, sentiment around AI infrastructure could remain volatile, with markets quick to reward good news and just as quick to punish disappointments.
The macro backdrop is bifurcated. AI spending continues to power growth, while renewed hostilities involving Iran have kept energy prices elevated and complicated an already elevated inflation picture. A tightening cycle is underway across much of the world, and long-dated sovereign yields have broken out to multi-decade highs, reflecting both this dynamic and the broader demand for growth capital. Credit spreads have been contained but bear close watching, as more AI spending is financed with debt.
Rising rates are landing hardest on the lower leg of the so-called K-shaped economy, including housing, lower- and middle-income consumers, and some small businesses outside AI—areas that already looked soft. The question is whether modest tightening can cool inflation without toppling those consumers and small businesses, and possibly the AI-driven economy, too. Our base case is a mid-cycle slowdown that still supports reasonable equity returns.
Against this backdrop, balance matters. Other important themes include defense and industrial rearmament, grid buildout, and precision health and life sciences. We also hold adjacent beneficiaries of AI spending and fiscal expansion, including select financials and industrials, where we see opportunities that could prove durable for several more years. More defensive businesses with less cyclical cash flows should provide stability if conditions turn more turbulent.
Conclusion
We are optimistic about global equities and believe the AI buildout will be a central driver of earnings growth for years to come. However, we expect third-quarter volatility to persist, and we’re watching several signposts: the situation in the Middle East and energy prices; central bank policy and financial conditions; the pace of AI capital spending and the related political and regulatory backdrop; and the US elections in November.
We are confident that the defining principles of our approach—including our active management of risk/reward, thematic and fundamental research, valuation discipline, and commitment to respecting the wisdom of the markets—will serve the portfolios well.
| Fund | Morningstar Overall Rating™ | Opportunity Set and Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Calamos Global Opportunities Fund (CGCIX) |
Morningstar Overall RatingTM Among 401 Global Moderate Allocation funds. The Fund's risk-adjusted returns based on load-waived Class I Shares had 5 stars for 3 years, 4 stars for 5 years and 5 stars for 10 years out of 401, 388 and 324 Global Moderate Allocation Funds, respectively, for the period ended 8/31/2026. |
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| Calamos Global Equity Fund (CIGEX) |
Morningstar Overall RatingTM Among 290 Global Large-Stock Growth funds. The Fund's risk-adjusted returns based on load-waived Class I Shares had 4 stars for 3 years, 4 stars for 5 years and 5 stars for 10 years out of 290, 278 and 201 Global Large-Stock Growth Funds, respectively, for the period ended 8/31/2026. |
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| Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund (CNWIX) |
Morningstar Overall RatingTM Among 689 Diversified Emerging Mkts funds. The Fund’s risk-adjusted returns based on load-waived Class I shares had 3 stars for 3 years, 2 stars for 5 years and 4 stars for 10 years out of 689, 629 and 467 Diversified Emerging Mkts Funds, respectively, for the period ended 9/30/2026. |
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| Calamos International Growth Fund (CIGIX) |
Morningstar Overall RatingTM Among 352 Foreign Large Growth funds. The Fund's risk-adjusted returns based on load-waived Class I Shares had 4 stars for 3 years, 3 stars for 5 years and 4 stars for 10 years out of 352, 333 and 222 Foreign Large Growth Funds, respectively, for the period ended 8/31/2026. |
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| Calamos International Small Cap Growth Fund (CSGIX) |
Morningstar Overall RatingTM Among 106 Foreign Small/Mid Growth funds. The Fund's risk-adjusted returns based on load-waived Class I Shares had 4 stars for 3 years out of 106 Foreign Small/Mid Growth Funds, respectively, for the period ended 8/31/2026. |
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Before investing, carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please see the prospectus and summary prospectus containing this and other information which can be obtained by calling 1-866-363-9219. Read it carefully before investing.
*Indexes are unmanaged, do not include fees or expenses and are not available for direct investment. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free-float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure equity market performance in emerging markets. The MSCI World ex USA Index measures the performance of developed equity markets, excluding the United States. The MSCI ACWI Index measures the performance of developed and emerging market equities. The MSCI World ex USA Growth Index, MSCI ACWI Growth Index, and the MSCI EM Growth Index include securities from these universes with growth characteristics; the MSCI World ex USA Value Index, MSCI ACWI Value Index, and MSCI EM Value Index include securities from these universes with value characteristics. The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of large-cap US equities. The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of 3,000 publicly held US companies by total market capitalization, representing approximately 98% of the investable US equity market. The Russell 3000 Growth Index is representative of those Russell 3000 Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000 Value Index is representative of those Russell 3000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations.
Important Risk Information. An investment in the Fund(s) is subject to risks, and you could lose money on your investment in the Fund(s). There can be no assurance that the Fund(s) will achieve its investment objective. Your investment in the Fund(s) is not a deposit in a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. The risks associated with an investment in the Fund(s) can increase during times of significant market volatility. The Fund(s) also has specific principal risks, which are described below. More detailed information regarding these risks can be found in the Fund’s prospectus.
Foreign security risk: As a result of political or economic instability in foreign countries, there can be special risks associated with investing in foreign securities, including fluctuations in currency exchange rates, increased price volatility, and difficulty obtaining information. In addition, emerging markets may present additional risk due to the potential for greater economic and political instability in less developed countries.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos International Small Cap Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk, and portfolio selection risk. The Fund invests in small capitalization companies, which are often more volatile and less liquid than investments in larger companies.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Opportunities Fund include: convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, synthetic convertible instruments risk consisting of fluctuations inconsistent with a convertible security and the risk of components expiring worthless, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, equity securities risk, growth stock risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, high yield risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, portfolio selection risk, and liquidity risk.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund include equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, and portfolio selection risk.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Equity Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, value stock risk, foreign securities risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk, and portfolio selection risk.
The principal risks of investing in the Calamos International Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices generally declining, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk.
Morningstar Ratings™ are based on risk-adjusted returns and are through 5/31/26 for the share class listed and will differ for other share classes. Morningstar ratings are based on a risk-adjusted return measure that accounts for variation in a fund's monthly historical performance (reflecting sales charges), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. Within each asset class, the top 10%, the next 22.5%, 35%, 22.5%, and the bottom 10% receive 5, 4, 3, 2 or 1 star, respectively. Each fund is rated exclusively against US domiciled funds. The information contained herein is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Source: ©2026 Morningstar, Inc.
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