The Opportunities That Arise When Markets Move Fast
I am in the camp that gets excited about volatile times. Increased volatility creates additional opportunities. Also, since we are on the hedged side of the business, we are in a unique spot to be able to capitalize off market swings.
Market movement creates opportunities for us to adjust our hedges, but also to alter or exit many of our trades and enter into new trades that didn’t exist previously. And, as volatility increases we find that asset class correlations break down.
In ordinary uneventful times there is high correlation among securities of the same or similar issuers across asset classes. While equities, convertibles, high yield and options are traded by largely different players and desks, and ultimately held by different end investors, they are highly correlated. Convert guys know what price the high yield bonds trade at and at what volatility the options trade. Those desks in turn should be focused on convert and equity valuations.
Normally, markets are fairly efficient and quick to adjust when other asset classes move. When volatility increases, though, markets move fast and each player has a tendency to focus more on their market and less on the other markets.
We can take advantage of these dislocations to create arbitrage situations or to adjust positions. Additionally, we can take them as a warning sign that other markets are pricing in risks that our market hasn’t yet.
The first thing I do when markets are moving fast is make sure we are positioned well and prepared. After that, I look for opportunity:
- How can I take advantage of this move to adjust our trades and hedges (i.e., lock in profits on shorts or puts, buy back calls we have sold, etc.)?
- Are single name option volatilities spiking and can I take advantage of this to create an arbitrage vs. our convertible positions?
- The listed option market moves faster and has larger moves than converts.
- We can use listed options opportunistically.
- Hedge—forward trade our gamma (sell puts or calls instead of covering or shorting stock—see page 32).
- Lock in value or create arbitrage—we are long volatility through our converts and can sell in listed market to create arbitrage.
- Which names will benefit or suffer from this move and has the market adjusted them yet? (A deep-in-the-money name which now will become balanced, for example, or a balanced name where the credit is deteriorating.)
- Formulate a game plan for the next move—after an equity sell-off we look at what will we do and which names/trades will benefit if we continue lower or if we snap back.
- If market continues lower
- Which names/trades benefit from the next leg down
- What opportunities might the next leg present (volatility arbitrage, hedge adjustments, etc.)
- If we snap back
- Which names didn’t recover (but should have?)
- Which opportunities do I get a second chance to add that I realize I missed before?
- Did our portfolios/securities perform as we expected and if not should we adjust?
- If market continues lower
For more information, see:
The Latest About Market Volatility
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Is inflation coming back? Are interest rates rising? Calamos Founder, Chairman and Global Chief Investment Officer John P. Calamos, Sr. on the value of using actively managed convertibles to pursue growth in this environment.
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Notwithstanding the markets' spectacular rebound last year—and mindful that this February stocks are back to trading at record highs—we’ll return to our original premise: There’s merit to seeking to minimize the depth and length of a drawdown.
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Multiple catalysts—including ongoing political and social issues, corporate earnings announcements, COVID-19 itself/vaccine delays, equity valuations and social media’s continued role in the markets—have the potential to create short-term market shocks this year.
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Investment professionals, join us for a January 2021 series of calls with members of the Calamos Investment Management Team providing outlooks on convertibles, liquid alternatives, U.S. and emerging markets equities, and fixed income.
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The market moved fast in both directions in 2020. The S&P 500 plunged into a bear market in a record 16 days and then recovered in a record 126 days. Through November 13, it's posted 11 all-time highs. Fortunately, there’s an alternative to hopping in and out of stocks, hoping to outfox the market.
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Investment professionals, do you wish you had done more in convertibles earlier this year? If so, it's not too late to consider now. Calamos Convertible Fund can be a core portion of your equity allocation, offering attractive risk/reward attributes to help navigate equity markets.
Disclosure
Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Information contained herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
Important Risk Information. An investment in the Fund(s) is subject to risks, and you could lose money on your investment in the Fund(s).There can be no assurance that the Fund(s) will achieve its investment objective. Investment in the Fund(s) is not a deposit in a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. The risks associated with an investment in the Fund(s) can increase during times of significant market volatility. More detailed information regarding these risks can be found in the Fund’s prospectus.
Some of the risks associated with investing in alternatives may include hedging risk, derivative risk, short sale risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, non-U.S. government obligation risk and portfolio selection risk. Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors.
The principal risks of investing in the Fund(s) include:
Convertible Fund: convertible securities risk, synthetic convertible instruments risk, foreign securities risk, equity securities risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, high yield risk and portfolio selection risk.
Market Neutral Income Fund: convertible securities risk, synthetic convertible instruments risk, convertible hedging risk, covered call writing risk, options risk, short sale risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, high yield risk, liquidity risk and portfolio selection risk.
Hedged Equity Income Fund: covered call writing, options, equity securities, correlation, mid-sized company, short sale, interest rate, credit, liquidity, portfolio selection, portfolio turnover, foreign securities, American depository receipts, and REITS.
As a result of political or economic instability in foreign countries, there can be special risks associated with investing in foreign securities, including fluctuations in currency exchange rates, increased price volatility and difficulty obtaining information. In addition, emerging markets may present additional risk due to potential for greater economic and political instability in less developed countries.
Before investing, carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please see the prospectus and summary prospectus containing this and other information which can be obtained by calling 1-866-363-9219. Read it carefully before investing.
NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE
David O’Donohue
Senior Vice President, Co-Portfolio Manager